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09/03/2010

Predicting the Next Market Decline - Not

Filed under: Investing — Tags: , , — kuru @ 11:37 pm




According to the Life Cycle Model proposed by Jeremy Siegel, Phd
head of the Wharton School of Economics it is not all that complicated. It
states that heavy amounts of stock will be sold as Boomers retire.

The Life Cycle Model briefly is that people slowly accumulate
assets, in this case stocks, and at age 65 they retire and then slowly sell off
these assets at retirement until they die. The younger generation buys the
stocks and this cycle continues on ad infinitum.

It sounds very logical, but the dear doctor (economist) has not done
all his homework.

When I first heard the theory I liked it, but then I had some questions.
How much stock do these stockholders own? Who owns the stocks? What
about income categories? When it is time to sell will there be enough
buyers? None of these are addressed.

Less than 50% of all Americans own stock of any kind at all.
Whoops! I guess they will be living off those big Social Security checks.
In a way this is good for the market as it limits the amount of stock to be sold
so the supply will not pressure the market down. That will not cause a bear
market.

Who will they sell to? There are fewer people in the X and Y generations.
That could cause less demand and lower prices. No mention is made of the
possibility of foreign buyers taking up the slack, but what if we are in a declining
economy. Would foreign buyers purchase? It is doubtful.

Here is the killer statistic. Sixty-five percent (65%) of all stock is owned
by 5% of the wealthiest and one half percent (1/2%) own or control 25%. This throws
the theory out of whack as it shows that 5 ?% own 80% of equities. These
are the people who will NOT be selling into the market as they get to retirement
age and even if they did the amount would have no impact on the overall
market. This is bullish as the supply is limited.

Joe Sixpack with his 401K and company pension plan has only 10% of
market share. Can this cause the market to break when he starts selling at
retirement? Hardly. This group represents only 5% of the population because
50% of the public doesn’t own any stock and all that selling (!?) will be spread
over a 20 year period.

It is obvious the “big money” dominates the stock market: the rich, the
hedge funds, pensions plans, institutions and foreign investors.

The Life Cycle Model needs to be reworked taking into effect future
demographics.

07/03/2010

Market Sectors - Organizing The Stock Market

Filed under: Investing — Tags: , , — kuru @ 6:12 am




Market Sectors - Organizing The Stock Market
Are you a clean freak? Does it drive you crazy when things are out of place or when a picture isn’t quite level? If you are at your friend’s house, do you wipe dust from a shelf or line up the towels when no one is looking? If so, you will like today’s topic; but don’t worry, we won’t lecture you on your obsessive compulsive side! The topic is market sectors and understanding and using them will not only tidy up your stock portfolio but will also help you to strengthen your trading plan as well.
A Definition of Market Sectors
They say a problem will defined is nearly solved; this can be applied to stocks as well. An investor needs a way to sort stocks; the basis of stock technical analysis relies on this comparison. If you can find common ground between two stocks, you can find a measurement of comparison. The best form of association is market sectors. “Market sectors” is a qualification method which looks at the type of business and groups them based on generally accepted names One of the most common classifications breaks the market down into 11 different market sectors. Two are generally regarded as “defensive” and the other nine are referred to as “cyclical”. These market sectors are:

Cyclical Stocks

Transportation

Technology

Health Care

Financial

Energy

Consumer Cyclical

Communication

Capital Goods

Basic Materials

Defensive Stocks

Utilities

Consumer Staples

Defensive Stocks

Defensive investing with defensive stocks are beneficial to a portfolio because companies in these market sectors typically don’t experience as much stock volatility when the market has problems because people still use energy and eat. These are good stabilizers to use for portfolio diversification and offer protection in a falling market.
The downside of defensive stocks is that they don’t climb with a rising market. Although the market is doing well people necessarily use more energy or eat more food. Defensive market sectors follow the image that their name implies; they can be used quite well as hedge funds, stable stocks that prevent too much volatility in a portfolio.

Cyclical Stocks

Cyclical stocks cover the remaining market sectors and they typically react to a variety of market conditions. They do move independently, however, as one may be going up while another is going down. Because of this, purchasing from the cyclical market sectors requires good stock market strategies.

Why do we care about market sectors?

There are two important concepts with market sectors. First, by understanding the different market sectors, it is possible to find relationships between different companies. If you don’t know that one company is in the health care sector and another is in the energy sector, you might compare their earnings per share and draw conclusions that don’t apply. Second, understanding market sectors allows you to add valuable protection to your stock portfolio. By investing in a number of different stock sectors, you can build a higher level of security for your investment. For example, if you invested $11,000 only in the communications sector and it dropped by 50% you will have lost $5,500 or 50% of your investment. If you invested equally in all eleven market sectors and the communications sector dropped by 50%, you will have only lost $500 or 4.5% of your investment. While the example is simplistic, the meaning is very clear; by spreading your investments over a number of market sectors you minimize your risks from a tumble by an entire sector.

Conclusion

Feel like doing a little “spring cleaning” on your portfolio now? By putting the stock market in the right baskets, you can know how to both evaluate a stock and insulate your portfolio from extreme risk. Most analysis matrixes start by comparing businesses from the same sector; as you use your trading plan to evaluate companies in similar market sectors, you will improve your decision making process. Then you can start trying to understand other important things like why those uneven towels bother you so much!

06/03/2010

Bear and Bull Market Run is Unpredictable in the Stock Market

Filed under: Investing — Tags: , , — kuru @ 5:24 pm




Just like the gravitational pull governs the activities on Planet Earth and in the absence of which, everything would be support less and fall to pieces, certain forces constantly act and react on each other to give shape to the activities of the share market. The term bull and bear market are easily mentioned, but they are very difficult to comprehend. They are supreme secrets of the Exchange, and which force will govern at what time and for how long, none can say with precision. Like the one who confidently forecasts weather only to observe subsequently its inadequacies, these runs are difficult to charter. When they arrive, one experiences their outcomes, enjoys their benefits or suffers losses as the cases may be.

This is not the subject of a casual investor. The veterans of the exchange and the day trader have experienced such runs and faced the consequences. The driving factors of these trends are buyers and sellers they are thus stamped. This description is not given to the Exchange as a whole, but to specific sectors or shares.

Imagine a situation where an investor, for the reasons best known, suddenly grows in confidence and goes on the buying spree. Now imagine such a situation for thousands of investors who swarm on particular stocks and buy them in anticipation of securing a capital gain. This is not a tale of fantasy, such events have taken place in the history, and the longest runs were experienced in the 1990s. The US and the other global markets saw an amazing growth spurt ever experienced in the history of trade and commerce. Unprecedented conditions prevailed.

The opposite happens in a bear market. The worried investors are downloading their shares, expecting losses and further losses. This happens not on account of the casual fall in the prices of the shares, and the trend continues for a long time and the selling spree remains unabated. As for the US markets, the history of 1930-32 is remembered with awe and that led to the Great Depression. The reasons for such depression could be anything, wars, energy crises and the unemployment surge and the like. Having gone through all these phases, yet the US market is considered as a bull market and hence it is known as the land of opportunities.

Analysts and researches try to go to the root cause of these trends but fail to anticipate the conditions precisely. This is the case with all stock market developments. The only interesting part of the exercise is one researcher tries to outsmart the other and proves how the findings and conclusions of the other are wrong. The game is kept interesting, and the investor kept guessing as ever. The near accurate calculation, giving credence to the historical trends is that the cycle lasts about 4 years, the former taking away the major share of the bull-bear cycle, 3 years, and the later being satisfied with 1 year.

For the investor, the real testing times are the bear markets. The survival instinct and the loss prospects cloud the investor’s vision and one commits mistakes and blunders during this period. Sudden rallies of share prices during this run are the camouflaging acts by the smart profit-seekers. The interplay of emotions, greed and fear is the worst development that can seize an investor. Under such conditions everything goes wrong and the day trading investor suffers a series of losses. With the sense of timing clouded, the investor is confused. Such an individual can not take the correct decision, and even the old war horses of the Exchange fail in their endeavors to find stability.

02/03/2010

Exact Date of the Coming Stock Market Crash

Filed under: Finance — Tags: , , — kuru @ 4:03 pm




Factors influencing the World Stock Markets
The world stock and financial markets react very noticeably to the configurations of the Sun with the large, outer planets, especially Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. One merely has to correlate these aspects for a few years, using an ephemeris, with a major index such as the Dow, to realise that this statement is true. Although Saturn/Uranus aspects show rough periods of the greatest fluctuations, I have found that, in particular, the diurnal aspects between the Sun and Jupiter are the best short-term indicators.

The markets generally experience growth leading into the trines, sextiles and conjunctions, and depress or even crash on the opposites (and occasionally the squares). I kept meticulous records of newspaper clippings of the world stock market movements during these “Sun/Jupiter” aspect dates between 1996 and 2001, and in almost every instance there was a noticeable general movement that was unmistakably caused by their interaction.

Download charts of the Dow for the past 20 years from the Internet (e.g. Dow 97-99 and Dow 89-99) and focus especially on the dates when there were sudden reversals. Note the expansion that occurs leading into the benevolent Sun/Jupiter aspect. Especially pay attention to the aspects the Sun makes to Saturn, Uranus and Neptune (and sometimes Pluto) immediately FOLLOWING the Sun/Jupiter aspect. If these are generally adverse, note how the Dow immediately depresses after these dates. If generally benefic, note how the expansion is sustained in the weeks following the Sun/Jupiter sextiles, trines and conjunctions.

Please note that this correspondence is normally noticeable if you are simply aware of the date of the opposition, square or of the beneficial aspects. It also seems to show up more clearly if you look at graphs of the 30-day moving averages of the various bourse indexes. I have also found that this technique holds a lot of merit when studying the Foreign Exchange markets. The Dollar price versus other currencies tends to follow the Dow Jones index. However, there is usually a lag or delayed reaction of about a week to a month or so. I think this has been noticed by many analysts before.

Overriding factors tend to follow that of traditional astrology. Several crashes have occurred when Jupiter opposes the Sun. The year in question is usually a ‘jittery’ year, as determined by Chinese astrology. These are mainly the years of the Cat, Rabbit and Rooster. In addition, the vacillating month of Libra (October) often adds to a bad configuration. The worst reactions occur in negative magnetic-pole (Yang) years, which are the odd years, for example, 1933, 1969, 1987, 1989, 2001, 2009…

For those who think the markets crashed in August, 1998, perhaps this was only the ‘cream off the top’. The sharp drop in September 2001, sparked by the World Trade Tower attack would have made anyone following the Jupiter-Sun cycles a small fortune had they shorted the markets. The Sun sextiled Jupiter on the 2nd of September. The next aspects the Sun made were a square to Pluto on the 5th, a square to Saturn on the 7th and an inconjunct to Uranus on the 14th. As previously mentioned, the aspects made by the Sun following a Sun-Jupiter aspect usually determine the direction the markets take thereafter. In this case, they were all bad, and it would have been wise to have sold stocks near the Sun-Jupiter sextile and purchased put options to make money as it dropped during September.

It is interesting to note that the Saturn-Pluto opposition (in ‘Air’ and ‘Fire’ signs) around this time fell on the American Ascendant/Descendant line. On the day of the attack, Jupiter joined this configuration by inconjuncting Pluto. Neptune had moved exactly onto the American South Node, a very evil aspect, as it turned out to be. Alan Meece (in ‘Horoscope for the New Millennium’ - first printed in 1996) accurately described the events of this time. ‘… Conflicts such as those in Iran or the Balkans will probably come to a head in 2001. Continuing ethnic strife in Europe seems likely. .. but then comes the combative Saturn-Pluto opposition in the summer of 2001. Uncle Sam will be feeling righteous again in a big way, eager to show other nations the truth. Religious issues and trade embargoes will be involved. .. Turning points in the confrontations come near November 2 and December 22, 2001.(In hindsight: this was the day the Taliban surrendered) After the December date, the U.S. could suffer losses in a serious naval engagement. .. Danger to the president is shown, too. After October, 2002, the outlook for peace starts to improve.’

Looking ahead, one of the next big crash dates could possibly be Black Friday, 14th August, 2009. Here are the reasons, in order of importance. 1. Saturn within orb of opposing Uranus. 2. Lunar node in Aquarius (nadir of the down cycle - Louise McWhirter’s theory). 3. Sun opposing Jupiter and Neptune. 4. Mars squaring Uranus.

Please note: Although you can almost certainly expect the markets to seriously deflate around this date, it is likely that the stock markets will generally not be a good place to be later on in this decade, as the Lunar node moves towards its nadir in Aquarius. However, by knowing when your own transits (and progressions) are good, you can still make money in any market, by going short or long. It is well known that you can often make money a lot faster in a falling market if you purchase put options or bonds at the correct time. You can get a very good indication of these times by following the basic rules discussed on this page. Summarised, they are:-

1. Purchase stocks (or the Dollar - note it lags behind the Dow) as the Sun starts moving within a 10-degree orb of a beneficial Sun-Jupiter aspect (trine, sextile or conjunction).

2. Sell around the date of the good aspect if the outer-planet aspects (to the Sun) following the beneficial Sun-Jupiter aspect are predominantly bad. If they are mostly good, hold on to your shares until roughly the date of the next Sun-Jupiter square or opposion.

3. Sell the markets short leading into the dates of the Sun-Jupiter squares and oppositions. They usually depress around these dates, sometimes dropping on the exact or next day.

4. A good rule-of-thumb is to expect a reversal of some degree on most Sun-Jupiter aspects.

5. Follow your progressions and transits to confirm that you are making your move at a beneficial time. If you don’t have the time or interest to do this, simply use the Lucky Days program to time your actions. This alone will give you an excellent advantage, especially when used in conjunction with a good analytical or charting method.

If you plot the major market indexes against the Sun-Jupiter aspects for the past decade or more, will see how they generally and unmistakably correlate.

2007 example of how the Sun-Jupiter aspects affect the Dow.
The 10 degrees (days) before the exact aspect are shown in color.

View the planet positions for 2007

Update 9/9/2007: Global Market Selloff beginning a few days ago.
Recently the traffic to this particular page has surged to several thousand visitors a week. Here’s hoping that some of you made some good money shorting the indexes this past week! (see the “square dates” below)

Update November 1, 2007:
Well, glad to see that the markets did not crash this October as some thought it might! On the contrary, the markets were good world-wide. If you have a look at the good dates below (Trines etc) you will see how well the concept worked. The aspects made by the Sun to the outer planets after the Sun-Jupiter sextile of 8 October were mostly favorable, indicating a buying opportunity from the end of August, 2007 until possibly around the date of the Sun and Jupiter conjunction on December 23, 2007.

Take note that the Pluto moves into Capricorn at the end of January, 2008, which will bring pressure on corporations and governments and will probably be the start of a recession in the US and other countries. Investors should be very cautious, many astrologers agree that we are in for a hard landing.

Update January 2, 2008:
Right on cue, the markets started dropping in the new year, after the Sun-Jupiter conjunction a week ago. This is actually getting quite boring. I just want to talk about why I don’t think that the markets will crash this year, around Monday, October 6, 2008, even though quite a few of the planetary conditions that cause crashes will be in effect at that time. Primarily, Saturn will be forming its opposition with Uranus: hard Uranus-Saturn aspects have definitely caused crashes and slumps in the past. The Sun will be square to Jupiter. Mercury will be turning retrograde on September 24th. But the reason I don’t think it will crash that week is because of the benevolent aspects both Venus and Jupiter will be making to each other and the Sun and Saturn at the same time. This indicates that it is likely that there will be a big scare in the global stock markets around the first week of October, 2008, but that governments (Saturn/Jupiter) will inject massive amounts of money into the markets that will buoy them up for a while longer. Also, it is an even year. I think they will drop about 10 percent, then recover again in preparation for the huge double-crashes of 2009 and 2011. That is why I still maintain that the first big crash will be around August 14, 2009.

For those who think they can bottom-fish and pile back into the markets after the crash (like they did in mid-1988), please consider the possibility of a double-crash extending over the next few years, namely 2009 and again in 2011. Pension-fund managers, please be careful. The skies are turning black.

Try following the effects of the Sun/Jupiter opposition each year. There is usually a remarkably visible effect on all of the major world stock markets.

Dates of the Sun-Jupiter Opposition each year (1970-2035). http://www.luckydays.tv/oppdates.html

List of the Sun-Jupiter Trines, Sextiles and Conjunctions (1997-2035). http://www.luckydays.tv/okdates.html

28/02/2010

Goal Setting Tips for Sales Professionals

Filed under: Self Improvement — Tags: , — kuru @ 10:22 pm
James Robbins asked:




Have you ever been there? I’m talking about one of those sales meetings where your manager is hot under the collar because everyone’s sales numbers are below target. You all get challenged, maybe even threatened that things had better turn around. You leave the meeting knowing your job is on the line and you have an enormous knot in your stomach.

The anxiety is from the uncertainty of sales itself. Sales is one of those positions where a lot of things are beyond your control. Unless you have learned the art of mind control, the final sale is someone else’s decision, not yours.

I am not saying that your efforts make no difference, far from it, but much of sales is about increasing the odds that they will buy. If you do not learn how to become a better sales person then chances are your odds will remain low to ever close a sale. But if you learn the art of selling and stick to your most important activities, you increase your odds. Remember, no one can close 100% of the time.

One of the most powerful tools you can have in your sales kit is Goal Setting. When done properly, goal setting can make the difference between you being an average salesperson and the top of the class. Here is how you use the power of goal setting to make more sales.

Goal setting tips for a sales professional:

As a sales professional try and avoid setting goals for how many sales you want to make. This sounds counter to everything you hear but stick with me. Many sales professionals will start the goal setting process with something like this, “Make 4 sales this month” and that’s it. While it is fine to have a number in your head and we all need something to aim at, we have to make sure our goal setting goes a few steps further.

What activities are you going to have to do to give yourself the best chances of making 4 sales this month? Best practices abound in every sales industry. The sad reality is only a minority actually stick to them. In your industry what are the daily things you must do to make sales? If you do not know you had better find out. Your sales manager should know, because he or she was probably promoted because they made a lot of sales. Who in your office right now is making a lot of sales? Success leaves clues, go and find out what they are doing. Once you have this information it is time to do a little goal setting.

I want to give you an example of a three pronged attack for goal setting by focusing on sales activities, personal development, and motivation.

Goal Setting in Sales Activities

Let’s say you find out that to give yourself the best chances of filling your pipeline and making sales you need to:

Make 30 cold calls a day to try and set up meetings

Call all of your past clients and ask for referrals

Send out an email newsletter to keep in touch with prospective clients.

Goal Setting in Personal Development

You also know that you need to work on some of your closing techniques. Others have told you that you are not aggressive enough in your sales cycle so you need to figure out a way to change that. Not leaving anything to chance you decide to do a little goal setting in this area:

Ask the most aggressive salesperson in your office if you can shadow them for a morning.

Read a book that just came out on closing the sale.

Ask 5 of your colleagues that are good at closing to glean information from them.

Goal Setting to keep your Motivation

You also know that in the past you have set some lofty goals but then you run out of steam and get discouraged. As a sales professional you can use goal setting to help you keep your motivation strong. Maybe for you it is:

Every morning read over you mission statement.

Once a week go for lunch with one of the more inspiring salespeople from the office.

Watch the movie “The Pursuit of Happiness” once this month.

So now you have a list of specific and measurable goals for you to focus on this month. Now your goal setting has been taken to the next level. In review, your goals for the next month are:

Sales Activities

• Make 30 cold calls a day to try and set up meetings

• Call all of your past clients and ask for referrals

• Send out an email newsletter to keep in touch with prospective clients.

Personal Growth

• Ask the most aggressive salesperson in your office if you can shadow them for a morning.

• Read a book that just came out on closing the sale.

• Ask 5 of your colleagues that are good at closing to glean information from them.

Motivation

• Every morning read over my mission statement.

• Once a week go for lunch with one of the more inspiring salespeople from the office.

The last step you need to take in this goal setting process is to create a system to keep track of your progress. Make a spreadsheet, or write it out on paper. Place it where you can see it everyday. Goal setting is more effective when you keep your goals constantly in front of you.

Another good idea is to share the plan with your manager for input. They will be able to give you some excellent feedback and maybe add a goal or two to your goal setting list list. This will also show your manager that you are motivated and really working hard at making those sales. While your manager wonders what everyone else is doing with their time, he or she will know exactly what you are doing.

By engaging in proper goal setting for the activities that are going to bring you closer and closer to those 4 sales, you take a lot of the stress and anxiety out of your day. Goal setting in this fashion, gives you a sense of control over your life, your success and your future as a sales professional.

Stock Market 2008 - Industrial Sector Stock Picks

Filed under: Investing — Tags: , , — kuru @ 7:33 pm




The industrials sector of the stock market is where I am most involved nowadays. While the big names like General Electric (NYSE: GE) and Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) may not jump out at you as big gainers, plenty of these rock-solid companies have been hit unfairly, and I see value. As an added bonus, industrials companies often act as a hedge to thriving markets like agriculture. We’ve got some killer stock picks for this week, lets see what we can dig up.

Industrial Machinery - Harsco (NYSE: HSC)I may be a sucker for fallen stocks, but Harsco’s drop off their highs was especially unwarranted. You want proof? How about beating fourth-quarter earnings estimates of $0.70 with $0.74 and increasing 2008 guidance. How about topping revenue expectations by $75 million. Harsco manufactures in mill services and gas technologies.. they are the top dogs in a boring market, and I’m loving it. A whopping 70% of their sales are international, and even in a slowing world economy, an unusually high rate of recurring service revenues gives me confidence in Harsco’s ability to maintain earnings momentum. Don’t be concerned with rising costs and problems in home construction, Harsco’s end markets such as global steel production and non-residential construction are expected to remain firm in 2008.

Despite slight challenges in Mill Services in the most recent quarter, Harsco outperformed with strong gains in Rail & Mineral Technologies. I see nothing but upside in growth for 2008, and with a key acquisition possibility, Harsco could completely out-do themselves. Access Services has a nice hedge against a possible falling non-residential construction since about 25% of their industrial maintenance business is recurring. Very protected from a slow-down, and undervalued at $55 versus a target of $75… I put a purchase price at under $54 for Harsco. Conglomerates - 3M (NYSE: MMM)3M is big-time diversified, offering everything from scotch tape to respirator devices. After raising 2008 guidance, multiple firms have issued BUY upgrades from HOLD in January. Investment research firm Stern Agee believes that 10% EPS growth in 2008 appears done deal under virtually any scenario.” This kind up build-in security net from a further economic downturn is just what we want. 3M right now is the kind of excellent company that investors are a bit antsy about buying back into after a fall-off from previous highs of $95 to $75. I affirm that there is no problem here; get in now before the big movers start to buy the shares back up.

We love international growth in a bloated US market, and 3M has 65% growth overseas… 30% of that in high-growth emerging markets. They are the “no magic required” investment we want in 08′. None of their business segments should have ANY problem creating the level of growth built into current valuations, and Reuters has downside estimated at 5% compared to a 15%-17% upside. There certainly aren’t any bells and whistles about 3M, but their global footprint in emerging markets positions them well to benefit from steady business ventures with relatively low risk. With a target price at $95, and an appropriate purchase price at $77-$79, I feel that this conglomerate juggernaut is a winner.

Industrial Engineering - Jacobs Engineering Group (NYSE: JEC)In their most recent earnings release (January 21, 2008), management at Jacobs Engineering Group hinted toward strength in key end markets, such as energy, which leads me to believe they will be at least matching their 15% year-over-year growth initiative. Also in this call, they beat earnings estimates by a few cents and increased 2008 guidance, citing a favorable pricing environment among other factors. This positive outlook “includes variance in the U.S. Economy.” But what I like most about Jacobs is their visibility. Operating margins fared better than expected in a challenging environment, and backlogs increased to nearly $15 billion, yes billion. Granted, this stellar growth may be more of a challenge for the year, but I feel that they can at least produce strong gains in the second quarter. If guidance remains positive at this point, the sky is the limit.

JEC is undervalued in my opinion, and their continued performance hasn’t missed a beat. When the market turns, Jacobs should be ready to ride the bull. On top of a strong free cash flow position, they have virtually no debt. They operate in four sectors: oil & gas, chemicals, national government and infrastructure, each with plenty of potential. Energy seems to be their most anticipated gainer in 2008, suggesting that clients offer a “commitment to spending” amid low volatility incurred by oil prices. Add this in with a steady pipeline of products, and we see oil & gas well leveraged in the market. I target Jacobs at a one-year $96 tag, and feel an appropriate purchase price should be from $70-$73.

Ag. Machinery and Construction - Manitowoc (NYSE: MTW)I have been a fan of Manitowoc cranes for the past few quarters, now we finally have the market underpricing this company like we want. Manitowoc competes with Terex (NYSE: TEX), an excellent company by all marks with high growth potential. However, I feel that most analysts miss on the fact that Terex’s cranes are low quality… workers want Manitowoc! They have already capitalized on international demand, and smashed earnings estimates of 68 cents with 74 cents. Earnings reports also yielded that continuing operations performance rose 119% year-over-year and sales of cranes jumped 56%. Manitowoc’s management confirmed that despite worries about the housing construction market, MTW’s operations were indeed minimally exposed to the pain.

There is no reason for this trend to slow in 2008, and trading under $40 is just not fair. We all know that the agriculture market has been surging as of late. Manitowoc has a hand in producing related equipment, and is also a major player in the emerging Asian markets… where non-residential construction is constant. Management believes they can maintain strong growth by focusing on new product introductions, market share increases (achieved by cross-selling through its expanded distribution network), and improved *********** in Asia. Prior to the sell-off in late-2007/early-2008, the crane industry was seen as “in the middle of a multi-year up-cycle” in demand and production. I expect this trend to continue now that shares of Manitowoc have unprecedentedly been crushed off their highs. I can see them hitting $54 a share, with an appropriate purchase price just under $39 for optimal value.

There are plenty of places to look for growth in 2008 out of the industrials sector. While I did not find any defense & aerospace companies particularly appetizing, I am bullish on the industry and would suggest looks at United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) and Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT). Agriculture giants like Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) may make viable investments as well, but you must be wary of the premium you often need to shell out for shares of stock. Please feel free to email me any stock questions you may have. -The Net Fool

27/02/2010

Set Goals For Self-improvement

Filed under: Self Improvement — Tags: , — kuru @ 4:13 pm
Dennis Watson asked:




In order to succeed or accomplish anything in life you must first set goals. It is especially a must for any person interested in self-improvement. With that said, one of the first sets of goals should be on self-improvement.

But remember “What you achieve through the journey of life is not as important as who you become” - Author Unknown.

Go ahead and take the actions and steps necessary to make your goal of self-improvement in some area of your life into a reality. A good example of this is how athletes will compare their current performance to their own previous performances with self-improvement being the number one goal.

Below are six goal-setting actions to help you realize your goals:

1. Begin with short-term goals that will build upon themselves and lead you to long-term ones.

If you have a big task, like becoming debt free, break it into smaller steps which will help you stay focused and on course. You will feel good as you reach each goal, keeping you motivated and ready for the next one.

2. Make sure you really want the goal. It is very important that the goals you choose are yours and not someone else’s goals set for you. If deep down you are not committed to the goals, you will only put off achieving it.

3. Share your goals with others. By doing this you will gain support you need from others. Make sure you share with those who will encourage you and not with those who will give you negative feedback.

4. Write down your goals. Create a written statement of goals and sign it. This will reinforce your commitment and give you a map for success. Also, when times get tough you can read your statement to help motivate you.

5. Stay the course and don’t give up. There is nothing more satisfying in life then when you complete a goal. Being successful once turns into many. It can become quite additive.

6. Rejoice and celebrate. Take time to savor the moment. You worked hard and found out that by being committed and dedicated your goals were met.

There you have it, six basic steps that will aid you on your journey to successfully obtaining your goals. All though all six steps are important the one that stands out the most is number 1. If you can’t break your goal down into bit size portions you will always put it off or procrastinate. And you know what happens when one procrastinates…nothing gets done. Good luck.

24/02/2010

Hotel Market Competition Analysis - Vital Questions to Ask

Filed under: Travel And Leisure — Tags: , , — kuru @ 8:04 pm




One of the most important aspects of market research is hotel market competition. Regardless of the market size, you must determine who your competitors are, and whether or not the market is large enough to support your entry. A hotel market competition analysis should answer the following questions:

What is the average occupancy rate (seasonally) of the surrounding area? Ideally, the higher the occupancy rate the better, as this suggests a lower barrier of entry.

Who are my main competitors? Identify those with the largest market share, as well as those who offer similar services. You want to establish a niche within the larger market segment that is under-served and fill it. For example, your research reveals that the competition is focused on the business sector, but fail to cater to families who visit the theme park just a few miles out.

What trends are working for/against me? If the competition is scarce, there might be good reason. While there may be a sizable market today, if the market has been trending down for the past several years you may want to reconsider. In this case, look for markets that offer growth opportunities. You can determine trends by checking with the American Hotel and Motel Association.

Now that you’ve laid out the biggest questions, it’s time to begin you analysis. In the past I’ve used local universities to supply the data for my research. Important metrics to look for include points of interest, population size and trends, and current amenities offered by your competitors. Separate the business and leisure markets to ascertain who is being served best by your competitors (they often aren’t the same chain) and which ones you are most likely to succeed in.

Hotel market competition should not take more than a few days before the picture becomes clear as to whether or not to proceed further. Once you’ve determined the market size, its needs and the competition, you’ll have a solid foundation on which to begin implementation.

Market *********** Pricing - A Quick Market Entry Pricing Strategy

Filed under: Business — Tags: , , — kuru @ 11:05 am




Market *********** pricing is a quick-entry price strategy that assumes low price will gain high sales volume which, in turn, will result in lowering costs. This strategy is used in price sensitive markets. For example, consider the market for DVD players; it is a high volume market, it has a high number of competitors, the costs to produce DVD players have fallen, and new and/or changing technology allow businesses to rapidly introduce new features and benefits on new models. The businesses that introduce DVD players quickly, sell high volume at low or reasonable prices, are following a market *********** strategy.

Businesses using market *********** pricing are usually trying to penetrate the market by growing their share of the market. They assume that the lowest price will win market share. Make sure that if you use this pricing strategy that you test your market, your price sensitivity and your price elasticity or in-elasticity first. Also be sure to do your market research to gain an understanding of how your competitors will react to this *********** pricing strategy. For example, your low price may cause your competition to lower price, then you will lower your price again, and so on - no one wins with a strategy like this.

But your market *********** pricing strategy can also be a deterrent for new competitors who are considering entering the market. When they see how low your pricing is and realize that their margins will be low and the risk of gaining market share for new entrants is high, they might choose not to enter the market. For your business to be successful with this strategy, it must have the capability to enjoy the economies of scale that high volume will bring and be the low cost provider in the market.

If you are an existing business and your competitor is following a market *********** strategy, do a thorough market research assessment of your capabilities:

Can you drive your costs down? Can you produce high volume? Do you want to sell your product at a low price (and hope volume sales will get you both the market share and the profitability you want)?

If you answer no to any of these questions, don’t follow this *********** strategy (or at least, consider this strategy very carefully). However, if you are a new business considering this strategy in a new, or scarcely populated, market, focus on how to drive your costs down and your efficiencies up.

Whatever pricing strategy you use, make sure that you specify it in your marketing mix plan and write down the reasons you chose that strategy. Then, at least on an annual basis at the time of your business plan update, review your chosen marketing strategy (including your pricing strategy) and ensure it is the right strategy for the product life cycle, for the market conditions, for your buyers, and for the competitive environment at that time.

Real Estate Market Absorption Rates - A Great Way to Determine the Strength of Real Estate Markets

Filed under: Real Estate — Tags: , , — kuru @ 5:49 am




Precisely how does a buyer or seller know when a real estate market most favors buyers or sellers? No buyer wants to pay too much and no seller wants to leave money on the table by pricing too low. The answer is in knowing the market absorption rates.

Property absorption rates in any local real estate market are usually considered the best indicators of whether that market is a sellers’ market, a buyers’ market, or a neutral market. The market is the market and favors no one. But knowing the current real estate market cycle is essential for success as either a buyer or seller.

Sellers’ Market - Absorption Rates 1-4;

Neutral Market - Absorption Rates 5-6;

Buyers’ Market - Absorption Rates greater than 7

The easy-to-understand process of calculating absorption rates for local markets will be helpful to anyone trying to figure out the current real estate cycle and how to formulate a winning buying or selling strategy.

For instance, assume there are currently 100 Single Family Home Lots for sale in a large, single family home community. Of these, 70 are priced at, or below, $45,000. Last month, assume that 5 lots sold for $45,000 or less. The absorption rate would then be 70 divided by 5 , or 14.0. An absorption rate of 14.0 indicates a strong buyer’s market and, that in an unchanged market, it will take 14 months to sell all the hypothetical 70 existing lots listed at or below $45,000.

This basic analysis can be used with most of property types including building lots, homes, condominiums, or even commercial properties. There must, however, be a high enough number of actual transactions to permit statistical analysis. The fewer the actual number of transactions the less statistically significant will be the results. Also, remember that within very broad but weak markets, narrow market segments may be showing non-typical strength.

Market absorption is a very useful tool for anyone trying to best determine how to price their property and what the current market says is a reasonable time period for a sale to be concluded. The absorption rate analysis also helps buyers in that in a buyer’s market a low purchase offer is often a winning strategy.

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